Model-free quantification of time-series predictability

Model-free quantification of time-series predictability.

This paper provides insight into when, why, and how forecast strategies fail when they are applied to complicated time series. We conjecture that the inherent complexity of real-world time-series data, which results from the dimension, nonlinearity, and nonstationarity of the generating process, as well as from measurement issues such as noise, aggregation, and finite data length, is both empir...

Time Series Predictability

A new metric that quantifies the predictability of a time series is introduced. This new time series predictability metric is developed based on the η -metric method introduced by Kaboudan, but overcomes the resolution and stationarity problems presented in the pure η -metric method. It also provides a new feature, which shows how the predictability changes over different subsequences in a time...

Visualizing Time Series Predictability

Predicting how temporally varying phenomena will evolve over time, or in other terms forecasting, is one of the fundamental tasks in time series analysis. Prediction has gained particular importance with the advent of real time data collection activities. Although there exist several sophisticated methodologies to predict time series, the success of a predictive analysis process remains mostly ...

Dynamic characterization and predictability analysis of wind speed and wind power time series in Spain wind farm

The renewable energy resources such as wind power have recently attracted more researchers’ attention. It is mainly due to the aggressive energy consumption, high pollution and cost of fossil fuels. In this era, the future fluctuations of these time series should be predicted to increase the reliability of the power network. In this paper, the dynamic characteristics and short-term predictabili...

An Equilibrium Model of Moving-average Predictability and Time-series Momentum